International education remains a priority for individuals who want to broaden their outlooks, institutions that want to expand their offerings and resources as well as governments that want to increase their national competitiveness and human capital. As such, the global higher education sector has shown strong, sustained growth in past decades despite intermittent economic uncertainty and demographic change.
This report, which focuses exclusively on student mobility, builds upon the findings of the shape of things to come: higher education global trends and emerging opportunities to 2020, published by the British Council in 2012. This research extends the forecasts of key international student mobility indicators and markets to 2024 and also includes analyses on three economic and non-economic scenarios in international education to better understand the possible effects of the future global environment.
Among the forecast findings for 56 shortlisted countries:
- The gross higher education enrolment ratio is set to rise between 2011-2024
- By 2024, it is expected that there will be 3.85 million outbound mobile higher education students globally, up from 3.04 million in 2011, with India and China contributing 35 percent of global growth during the forecast period
- The major bilateral student flows in 2024, in terms of volume, will continue to be from China and India, to traditional host markets. But flows between Nigeria and the UK, Saudi Arabia and the US and UK, Pakistan and the UK, and Nepal and the US will be among the top ten fastest growing bilateral flows between 2011 and 2024
- By 2024, India, China, Indonesia and the US will be home to over 50 percent of the world’s 18-22 year old population, despite the fact that the Chinese tertiary-aged population is projected to fall by roughly 40 million in the next decade
- Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Nepal, Pakistan, Iraq, Brazil, Turkey and Indonesia will emerge as important origin markets
- The UK has a host destination will benefit from large outbound markets from India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
- The US has a host destination will be the major beneficiary of growth of outbound students from China and India
For UK institutions which have registered for our British Council Service for International Education Marketing (SIEM) service, please purchase here to enjoy the exclusive discount for the UK education sector. UK institutions which possess a valid platinum Education Intelligence annual subscription can download the report directly on the British Council Services for International Education Marketing (SIEM) website.